Lull Before The Storm?

A great deal has been made of John Kerry's "lack of message" of late. The attacks on the Kerry campaign and Kerry himself have come as Bush's approval ratings in the polls have slumped, yet without a significant increase in Kerry's poll numbers.

In Wednesday's Guardian, former editorial page editor of the New York Times, Howell Raines concludes:

Surely someone in Kerry's campaign can figure out a way for him to say, "Here's my plan for getting us out of Iraq and defeating terrorism," and "Here's my plan for making sure you're not sick and poor in your old age." And then make him say it over and over again, no matter what question is asked of him. Kerry has to face the fact that even though the incumbent looks like Goofy when he smirks, he's going to win unless Kerry comes up with something to say. To stay "on message", you have to have one.

Blogger Digby roars back:

This is quite the cynical worldview coming from the man who thundered from the editorial pages of the "liberal" New York Times against the venality and cravenness of Hilary Clinton's 1978 cattle futures trades. The same man who almost single handedly enabled the destruction of a Democratic president because of his alleged dishonesty and personal corruption.

And this sage advice to fool the greedy rubes into voting Democratic comes from the man who in this very same column derides John Kerry for his sense of "entitlement."

Howell Raines is the perfect representative of everything that is wrong with the SCLM. They aren't really liberal and they aren't really conservative. They are shallow, bitchy elitists. Suffice to say, any advice from this guy should be taken as a sign to do the opposite. Compared to pompous ass Howell Raines, John Kerry is Elvis Presley.

It's early June... early in the campaign, I think, as presidential campaigns go. How often has the Democratic Party had its candidate named (in a non-incumbent year) so early in the race? The number of variables that can affect Kerry's prospects are many: the "capture"* of Osama bin Laden; economic statistics; fallout from the ongoing investigations of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal and all of a sudden warming Valerie Plame outing.

I wonder if Kerry's naming of a Vice-Presidential running mate isn't being kept under wraps as a matter of combatting any favorable bumps Bush might get between now and the Democratic convention.

Kerry could easily benefit from what appears to be an unraveling of an administration without having to create the noise himself. However, I think Kerry would prefer a steady climb to a quick jump in the polls that is only likely to even out as election day gets closer anyway.

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*I'm convinced that bin Laden has already been captured and is being held in Pakistan, hence the quotation marks.