The Howard Stern Factor

Ryan Lizza, in his Campaign Journal at The New Republic Online, makes note of the possible (and likely unsuspected) blowback effect of the FCC's crackdown on Howard Stern's radio show.

THE STERN GANG: Forget about soccer moms and NASCAR dads. The New Democrat Network has identified the hot new swing vote of the 2004 election: people who listen to Howard Stern. It turns out that Stern's anti-Bush diatribes might actually be having an impact on the presidential campaign. From a polling memo released by NDN yesterday:

The Stern Gang. Potentially offsetting the conservative dominance of the radio waves is Howard Stern. The nationally-syndicated radio host is listened to by 17 percent of likely voters, and nationally, they would support Kerry over Bush by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent. In the battleground states, their preference for Kerry is even stronger, backing him by a margin of 59 percent to 37 percent.

More importantly, one-quarter of all likely voting Stern listeners are swing voters. This means that four percent of likely voters this fall are swing voters who listen to Howard Stern, showing Stern's potential ability to impact the race. Generally, likely voters who are Stern listeners are: 2 to 1 male to female; 40 percent Democrats, 26 percent Republicans, and 34 percent Independents; more liberal and less conservative than the average voter; significantly younger than the average voter (two-thirds are under 50 and 40 percent are under 35); more diverse; and more driven in their vote by economic issues. [Emphasis added.]

Hmm. In 2000, Bush sat down for a soft interview with Oprah--remember that kiss?--to help close the huge gender gap that had opened up in the race. You have to wonder what will happen this year if Bush and Kerry decide to aggressively court the Stern Gang. No word yet on whether the Bush twins or Kerry's daughters have been asked to drop by Stern's radio lair.

UPDATE: In the June issue of The Atlantic, Ross Douthat has a great piece on how "hundreds of thousands of swing-state radio listeners may turn the unlikely Howard Stern into a presidential kingmaker."