Writing On The Wall?

One of Bush's top campaign pollsters/advisors is Frank Luntz. Apparently, he doesn't think things are going so well.

From The Gadflyer (via Brad DeLong via Value Judgement)...

Luntz Spilz
Thomas F. Schaller

So I'm at the event sponsored by Democratic Gain tonight (Sunday) at Avalon -- the nightclub located directly across the street from centerfield at Fenway -- when I spot GOP focus-group guru Frank Luntz yucking it up with some friends.

Well, maybe they're less friends than acquaintences, for soon enough Frank is standing all by himself, right behind me as everyone in the venue is waiting for Bill and Hillary to show at this event. (I eventually gave up and left, so I head to bed not knowing whether they showed....whatever.)

Anyway, Luntz seems a bit tipsy, but there he is, a few feet away. I cannot resist.

"What do you think?" I ask him, in a tone that indicates that I'm not talking about last night's Sox-Yankees brawl.

"Kerry will win," he says. I feel myself jump back slightly.

"Wow," I say. "How can you be so sure?"

"Bush's numbers on the war are bad, and it's spreading."

I follow-up: "So, it's that simple -- 'It's the war, stupid'?"

"Well, not that simple...but basically, yes."

"Ok, then, so what's the save-all scenario for Bush? Is there some way he manages to pull it out?"

"Only by making Kerry look bad, inconsistent."

"The flip-flopper thing," I say, seeking clarification.

"Yes," Luntz said. "But even that may not do it."

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I offer two clarifiers. First, I did not mention to Luntz that we were on the record, no less for a progressive webzine. And, two, Luntz seemed to be....well, he seemed a bit tipsy. But, hey, en vino veritas, kiddies. What happens in Boston does not stay in Boston.

And in my own defense, all I asked was -- "What do you think?" He could have interpreted that as an inquiry as to how Biz Markie's performed earlier in the evening. (Answer: Superbly, and this has to be the only post I'll ever write that includes both Luntz and Markie.) The point is that Luntz knew what I meant, and meant what he said.